Potential Westward Spread of Emerald Ash Borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, 1888 (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) from Eastern Ukraine

Emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis, is a phloem-boring beetle, native to East Asia that has become serious invasive pest of (Fraxinus spp.) trees in North America and European Russia since the early 2000s. In 2019, EAB was detected Ukraine. It had spread over 300 km from entry point two years killed hundreds Fraxinus excelsior F. pennsylvanica trees. poses threat forests neighboring countries, which have already been damaged by fungus Hymenoscyphus fraxineus. The purpose this research (i) reveal traits climatic variables affect its survival; (ii) predict expansion range Ukraine westward; (iii) compare most significant bioclimatic native, ranges EAB, as well outside these ranges. results demonstrated following: all ranges, adapted seasonal temperature variations; MaxEnt model predicted potential distribution with high accuracy (AUC = 0.988); area invasion covered 87%, 48%, 32% Luhansk, Kharkiv, Donetsk regions, respectively; EAB-inhabited regions ecological plasticity pest. However, predictions could be improved considering forest structure, localization roads.